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Systems tested

The Mayer Multiple on Bitcoin: $1,000 → $7,770, and the catch

Since 2017, the Mayer Multiple would have turned $1,000 into $7,770 on Bitcoin.

2017.

Bitcoin investor Trace Mayer looked at one ratio: the price against its 200-day average.

His line: 2.4. Below it, he said, buying had paid off best.

The rules

Ratio. The price, divided by its 200-day average.

In. The ratio is below 2.4: buy, with the whole account.

Out. It goes above 2.4: sell everything, sit in cash.

Daily candles · Aug 2017 – Nov 2026 · fees 0.1% a trade included

What we found

$1,000 on BTC, 2017
$7,770
Just holding
+1,627%
Without its biggest trade
+167%
Beat just holding, all 29 markets
7 of 29
Smaller worst drop than holding
14 of 29

Can we make it better?

We wrote down 18 changes before testing, and picked the one that did best on the first 70% of each market's history, across all 29: a 100-day average.

Then the real test: BTC after Feb 2024, data it never saw.

The original rules
+72%
A 100-day average
+72%
Just holding
+72%
It held up on 6 of 29 markets.
Free account

The full test

Every market, the whole period against just holding, and after the cut: the original, the change, holding. Plus all 18 changes.

Sign in free to see all 29 markets and all 18 changes. Just your email, no card.

See the full test →

A setup is a starting point, not a verdict.

Other candles, stops, filters, your own coin: test every change on real data, before you risk a cent.

Test your own version

Past results, measured on real data with fees included. No promise of future returns. This is not investment advice.

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