Systems tested
The 4-week rule on oil: $1,000 → $3,180, and the catch
Since 2017, the 4-week rule would have turned $1,000 into $3,180 on oil.
Richard Donchian.
In 1949, he started one of the first public funds that followed trends.
His simplest rule fits in one sentence.
The rules
In. The close beats the highest price of the last 4 weeks: buy, with the whole account.
Turn. The close breaks the lowest price of the last 4 weeks: sell, and go short.
Nothing else. Always in the market. No stop: the other side is the stop.
Daily candles · Jan 2017 – Nov 2026 · fees 0.1% a trade included
What we found
$1,000 on WTI, 2017
$3,180
Just holding
+64%
Beat just holding, all 29 markets
9 of 29
Smaller worst drop than holding
12 of 29
Free account
The full test
Every market, the whole period against just holding, and after the cut: the original, the change, holding. Plus all 19 changes.
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See the full test →A setup is a starting point, not a verdict.
Other candles, stops, filters, your own coin: test every change on real data, before you risk a cent.
Past results, measured on real data with fees included. No promise of future returns. This is not investment advice.