The crypto community is closely watching how the upcoming election impact the industry.
While former President Donald Trump has labeled himself the “crypto president,” actively advocating for the sector, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has maintained a more restrained stance since joining the race.
According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, and Nathan Frankovitz, a digital asset investment analyst at the firm, both a Harris and a Trump administration could be bullish for Bitcoin, but the broader digital asset market might experience divergent outcomes under their leadership.
Harris Presidency Might be Better for Prices
VanEck outlined a scenario in which a Harris presidency could see the retention of SEC Chair Gary Gensler, known for his stringent stance on cryptocurrency regulation.
This, coupled with Harris aligning her financial policies with the more regulatory-focused wing of the Democratic party, represented by Senator Elizabeth Warren, could create a challenging environment for institutional adoption of digital assets.
Such a regulatory climate could stifle innovation and growth within the sector, posing challenges to broader crypto market development.
However, there is a silver lining for Bitcoin enthusiasts.
VanEck suggested that a Harris presidency might, paradoxically, be more beneficial for Bitcoin than a Trump administration.
The firm argued that the structural issues potentially exacerbated under Harris, such as increased fiscal spending and regulatory tightening, could drive more investors to Bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation.
This could enhance Bitcoin’s appeal and competitiveness over other digital assets.
On the other hand, VanEck’s analysis suggested that the crypto industry as a whole could benefit more from a second Trump term.
A Trump presidency would likely bring more deregulation and business-friendly policies, which could particularly favor crypto entrepreneurs.
Under such an administration, the firm believes the crypto ecosystem would experience less regulatory scrutiny, providing a more conducive environment for growth and innovation.
Bernstein Expects Bitcoin to Surge if Trump Wins
Not everyone shares this view, though.
A report from Bernstein projects a rise in Bitcoin’s price, potentially reaching between $80,000 and $90,000, if Trump wins the election.
Conversely, they predict a downturn, with Bitcoin possibly testing the $30,000 to $40,000 range, should Harris emerge victorious.
Despite differing opinions on the candidates, the broader macroeconomic trend appears to favor Bitcoin regardless of who wins.
VanEck notes that the U.S. will likely continue on a path of growing fiscal deficits and rising national debt, leading to a weaker dollar.
Historically, such conditions have been favorable for Bitcoin, which many investors view as a store of value and hedge against economic instability.
Meanwhile, investment Bank Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick has said Bitcoin is expected to end the year at new all-time highs regardless of who wins the US election.
Kendrick suggested that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs by the end of 2024 due to “positive drivers dominating regardless of the election outcome.”
“I think Bitcoin ends the year higher, at new all-time highs, no matter who wins the U.S. election, with a Trump win taking it to $125,000 and $75,000 if it’s Harris.”
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